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Planning Fallacy
“The last project ran late. This one will differ, because today's plan looks flawless.”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
People often underestimate the time, cost, or difficulty of their own projects. They focus on the ideal path for the current case and discount how comparable tasks actually ended.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
A student promises to finish an essay by Friday after counting writing hours but not research, revisions, or familiar interruptions.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
Not every delay comes from optimism; scope can genuinely change and some events cannot be anticipated.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Begin with the distribution of completed, similar projects, then adjust for the current case's specific features.