IDEA FOUND // IDEA 27
Planning Fallacy
“The last project ran late. This one will differ, because today's plan looks flawless.”
01 / PLAINLY
What it means, plainly
When planning, people often picture the ideal route and allow less time, money, or difficulty than the task eventually requires.
02 / CONTEXT
A little more
People often underestimate the time, cost, or difficulty of their own projects. They focus on the ideal path for the current case and discount how comparable tasks actually ended.
03 / WHY IT MATTERS
Why it matters
Overconfident schedules and budgets leave too little room for ordinary work, revision, and familiar interruptions.
04 / EXAMPLE
A familiar example
A student promises to finish an essay by Friday after counting writing hours but not research, revisions, or familiar interruptions.
05 / LIMIT
What it does not mean
Not every delay comes from optimism; scope can genuinely change and some events cannot be anticipated.
06 / NOTICE
Notice it in your day
Review three completed tasks like the current one and note how long each actually took. Start with that range, then adjust for this project's special features.
FINAL NOTE
The idea worth keeping
Begin with the distribution of completed, similar projects, then adjust for the current case's specific features.
QUESTIONS / 02
Questions people still have
Why can a detailed plan still be optimistic?
It may describe the ideal route precisely while leaving out ordinary research, revisions, or interruptions.
Does every delay confirm the planning fallacy?
No. A genuine change in scope or an unforeseeable event can also cause delay.