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P-Values
“A p-value asks about the data under a model; it does not give the probability that a hypothesis is true.”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
A p-value indicates how incompatible the data are with a specified statistical model, counting outcomes at least as extreme. Its meaning depends on design, assumptions, and analytic choices.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
p = 0.03 does not mean there is a 3% probability that the null hypothesis is true.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
It also does not measure effect size, practical importance, or probability of replication.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Read the p-value alongside the estimate, uncertainty, design, and context.