FILE SELECTED // FILE 00
Outcome Bias
“The bet paid off. Does that turn a poor decision into a good one?”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
People judge a decision's quality by how it ended even when the decision-maker could not know the outcome. A sound process can meet bad luck, while a weak one can benefit from chance.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
Speeding without an accident may be judged acceptable; the identical conduct looks reckless when it ends in a crash.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
Outcomes do matter for learning; the mistake is treating them as complete evidence about the earlier information and process.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Audit what was known, which options existed, and which probabilities were reasonable at decision time.