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Optimism Bias
“You know the risk exists. It simply seems to belong a little more to everyone else.”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
When comparing ourselves with others, we may see ourselves as less exposed to harms and closer to favorable outcomes. The pattern varies with perceived control, experience, and question wording.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
Many people in one group may each claim a below-average chance of delay, a mathematical impossibility if their risks are alike.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
Expecting a good result is not automatically an error; bias requires a miscalibrated comparative or probabilistic estimate.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Turn “it will work out for me” into a checkable rate and list specific conditions that could change it.