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Logic & science2 MINBrief fileEstablished evidence

Probabilistic Independence

Two events can occur together while leaving each other's probabilities unchanged.

01 / SUMMARY

In short

A and B are independent if learning one does not change the probability of the other; equivalently, P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B). This is a property of the model or process, not a visual impression.

03 / SCENE

In the wild

Across two fair coin tosses, the first result does not change the probability of heads on the second.

04 / LIMIT

The limit

Independent does not mean mutually exclusive; positive-probability events that exclude each other are dependent.

FINAL NOTE

What remains

Check the product rule or conditional probability instead of trusting intuition.