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Gambler's Fallacy
“A streak feels as if it demands repayment even when the mechanism keeps no memory.”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
The fallacy expects independent outcomes to balance in the short run: after many heads, tails seems due. For a fair coin, the next toss remains 50/50.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
Five reds in a row on an ideal roulette wheel do not make black more likely on the next spin.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
The warning assumes independence and stability; a streak may still prompt a check for a changed or biased mechanism.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Before calling an outcome overdue, check whether the process has any real memory.