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Falsifiability
“If an explanation can accommodate every possible result, what observation could genuinely test it?”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
Popper proposed falsifiability as a demarcation criterion: an empirical theory must rule out some possible outcomes. Passing severe tests may provisionally corroborate it, but never establish it forever.
02 / SEQUENCE
What happens
- 01
The theory makes claims that rule out certain outcomes.
- 02
A test is designed in which failure is genuinely possible.
- 03
Survival raises provisional confidence; failure prompts review of theory, measurement, and assumptions.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
“This treatment always helps, except when invisible reasons stop it” evades refutation. A measurable prediction about dose, population, and outcome takes a risk.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
One anomaly does not automatically destroy a complex theory, and an unfalsifiable statement is not necessarily false or meaningless.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
A strong empirical explanation does more than fit the past: it states which result would put it in trouble.
CHECK / 01
Put it to work
How firm is your read?