SPIN RESULT // FILE 00
Falsifiability
“If an explanation can accommodate every possible result, what observation could genuinely test it?”
PANEL A // CORE
The essential idea
Popper proposed falsifiability as a demarcation criterion: an empirical theory must rule out some possible outcomes. Passing severe tests may provisionally corroborate it, but never establish it forever.
PANEL B // SEQUENCE
How it works
- 01
The theory makes claims that rule out certain outcomes.
- 02
A test is designed in which failure is genuinely possible.
- 03
Survival raises provisional confidence; failure prompts review of theory, measurement, and assumptions.
PANEL C // CASE
Concrete case
“This treatment always helps, except when invisible reasons stop it” evades refutation. A measurable prediction about dose, population, and outcome takes a risk.
PANEL D // LIMIT
It does not mean this
One anomaly does not automatically destroy a complex theory, and an unfalsifiable statement is not necessarily false or meaningless.
RHO // FIELD NOTE
Take it with you
A strong empirical explanation does more than fit the past: it states which result would put it in trouble.
FINAL PANEL // APPLY
Transfer test
Before answering: how confident are you?