SPIN RESULT // FILE 00
Correlation and Causation
“When ice-cream sales rise, drownings also increase. What might cause both?”
PANEL A // CORE
The essential idea
An association may arise through direct causation, reverse causation, a common cause, selection, or chance. Causal inference requires designs and assumptions capable of ruling out rival explanations; correlation alone offers no automatic test.
PANEL B // SEQUENCE
How it works
- 01
You observe two variables changing together.
- 02
You list possible causal directions, common causes, and selection effects.
- 03
You seek a design or additional evidence that can distinguish them.
PANEL C // CASE
Concrete case
Hot weather may raise both ice-cream consumption and time spent swimming. Temperature is a plausible common cause.
PANEL D // LIMIT
It does not mean this
“Correlation does not imply causation” does not mean correlations are useless or only randomized experiments provide causal evidence.
RHO // FIELD NOTE
Take it with you
When you see an association, ask: what earlier variable might move both, and how were the observations selected?
FINAL PANEL // APPLY
Transfer test
Before answering: how confident are you?