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Conjunction Fallacy
“A detailed story sounds persuasive. Can it be more likely than a broader version of that same story?”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
The probability of A and B occurring cannot exceed the probability of A alone. Yet a representative description can make the more specific combination feel more plausible.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
“Works at a bank and is active in environmental causes” cannot be more common than “works at a bank,” because the first group sits inside the second.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
It is not an error to say the combined story fits better; the mistake is turning that fit into a higher probability.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Draw the sets: if one option is contained within another, it cannot include more cases.