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Confirmation Bias
“I tell you that “2–4–6” follows a rule. Would you try “8–10–12,” or a sequence that could defeat your first idea?”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
When testing a hypothesis, we often choose examples expected to work if it is true. The problem is that those examples may fit rival explanations too. More informative tests distinguish alternatives and risk proving our first intuition wrong.
02 / SEQUENCE
What happens
- 01
You form an initial explanation from the information available.
- 02
You seek or interpret examples that fit it.
- 03
Without a strong rival test, you overestimate how much the evidence supports it.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
If you think music improves your memory, you may recall successful study sessions with music. A real comparison also tracks silent sessions, task difficulty, and sleep.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
Evidence that agrees with a belief is not automatically invalid; what matters is how it was sought, interpreted, and compared.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
Before searching, write down what result would change your mind and test a rival explanation.
CHECK / 01
Put it to work
How firm is your read?