SPIN RESULT // FILE 00
Confirmation Bias
“I tell you that “2–4–6” follows a rule. Would you try “8–10–12,” or a sequence that could defeat your first idea?”
PANEL A // CORE
The essential idea
When testing a hypothesis, we often choose examples expected to work if it is true. The problem is that those examples may fit rival explanations too. More informative tests distinguish alternatives and risk proving our first intuition wrong.
PANEL B // SEQUENCE
How it works
- 01
You form an initial explanation from the information available.
- 02
You seek or interpret examples that fit it.
- 03
Without a strong rival test, you overestimate how much the evidence supports it.
PANEL C // CASE
Concrete case
If you think music improves your memory, you may recall successful study sessions with music. A real comparison also tracks silent sessions, task difficulty, and sleep.
PANEL D // LIMIT
It does not mean this
Evidence that agrees with a belief is not automatically invalid; what matters is how it was sought, interpreted, and compared.
RHO // FIELD NOTE
Take it with you
Before searching, write down what result would change your mind and test a rival explanation.
FINAL PANEL // APPLY
Transfer test
Before answering: how confident are you?