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Availability Heuristic
“If an example comes to mind quickly, must it also be common in the world?”
01 / SUMMARY
In short
When judging frequency or probability, people often use how easily examples can be recalled or imagined. That cue can help, but recent news, vivid images, and personal experience can distort it.
03 / SCENE
In the wild
After watching several reports about stolen luggage, a traveler may overestimate that risk relative to less memorable but more common problems.
04 / LIMIT
The limit
Easy recall does not by itself prove a judgment is wrong; memory sometimes does reflect a real frequency.
FINAL NOTE
What remains
When the number matters, replace ease of recall with a relevant base rate from an appropriate source.